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NEWEST ON TOP. Certain activism mails are not posted here. And what's posted here is not real-time (sometimes months or weeks later). So if you want to join Arena Private Investor Group's Mailing List send a message through this site's contact-us page.


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From Dr. Joseph:

Key Takeaways from ARNA’s May 8, 2019 Earning Call

 

ARNA is demonstrating that it’s very well designed Ralinepag Phase III trials were no fluke by putting forward an innovative and very aggressive plans for its Estrasimod Phase III ulcerative colitis (UC) known as ELEVATE UC.  Quotes from the conference call:

 “Arena has developed a field-based team of health care professionals to interact directly and frequently with leadership at the sites, the PIs and study coordinators, with a focus on customer service. This is a different and additive approach compared to the typical process of delegating site relationships to a CRO”

“We are extremely confident in our global CRO and their capabilities in the IBD space, and with them, we have developed a coordinated approach to drive excellent customer service to sites and their patients with an appropriate overlay of quality assurance with respect to trial execution”

“We fundamentally believe etrasimod has an opportunity to be a best-in-disease therapy that can truly shift the UC treatment paradigm and potentially offer patients an improved quality of life”

More on the trials:

  • The ELEVATE UC Phase III pivotal trial will initiate soon (mid-year) and is split into 2 parts:
    • ELEVATE UC 52 - a treat-through design with a 12-week induction period seamlessly followed by a 40-week maintenance period for a total 52-week exposure
    • ELEVATE UC 12 – a 12 week confirmatory 12-week induction period trial (which is designed to end about the same time as the end of the UC 52 trial).
  • Both the ELEVATE 52 and ELEVATE 12 trials will target populations that are either naïve to a prior biologic or JAK inhibitor or populations that have failed either of these two popular options
    • By demonstrating superiority here, ARNA can establish etrasimod as the go-to-choice for UC therapy. The market opportunity here is very large and ARNA’s outstanding success in the phase II OASIS trial give them confidence in being aggressive for success
  • The ELEVATE UC trials will be conducted in approximately 450 sites across more than 40 countries.  Enrollment (700) will be staggered to optimize trial progression.   Although this seems like a lot of sites of the number of enrollees, I consider it very assuring that ARNA recognizes the monetary value of time decay and is willing to be very aggressive to make sure that ARNA trial delays become a thing of the past.  
  • Data from the ELEVATE UC trials is expected in 2021. This is an aggressive timeline compared to previous competitors in this space.
  • Patients completing either study will be eligible to enroll in an open-label extension trial from which additional long-term safety and efficacy data will be collected
  • Based upon the results of the Phase II OASIS Trial where etrasimod showed best-in-disease characteristics, approval seems likely

 

Etrasimod is clearly the only next generation S1P modulator being developed today

  • ARNA has recently completed a human mass balance study in humans (the same type of study that resulted in a refuse to file letter for ozanimod in 2018) and confirmed that etrasimod has no major circulating metabolites. This in addition to no issues that should delay approval (as with other compounds that demonstrate liver toxicity (i.e. elevated liver enzymes), heart rate changes, AV block, ocular issues, half-life, etc.).  
    • Etrasimod clearly has an amazing opportunity to be not only a best in class but also a best in disease agent

Expect ARNA to roll etrasimod into a number of other indications in the future.  Quote from Amit Munshi:

  “We're excited to further evaluate etrasimod in multiple indications going forward and continue to believe that it is the only next-generation S1P modulator in development with improved pharmacology and pharmacodynamics and demonstrated improved safety and efficacy, offering tremendous promise in the treatment of a broad range of immune and inflammatory-mediated conditions”

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I added many of these past emails here: https://arna-stock.yolasite.com/investor-group-email-messages.php -- site's direct link: www.arna-info.com

Large-investor/activist/friend John wrote:

Here is my take on the call;

1. ARNA has designed a very professional phase 3 study.

2. I believe they are talking to someone because the study they designed is really out of their league. They are not that good.

3. Designing a study like you would expect from the big operators is exciting.

4. Finally, ARNA is not capable of designing that detailed of a study. Possibly they are following testing protocol from one of the big boys who are guiding them behind the scenes on how to do it.

Not sure but something good is up.

Ps. Can I get on the Hawaii trip?

~~~

I agree John -- this trial design is amazing and it's what Wall Street was waiting to see, as it sheds light on the way forward to taking Arena's crown jewel to market, by Arena, or its future owner, whether it's Novartis or ??? I think Arena will get gobbled by a big pharma before we know it. Of course, the Hawaii party will not be the same without you. The whole team is invited :)

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I bought afterhours last night because I didn't like seeing the obvious headfake selling into the thin after-hours bid. It became a matter of pride   I followed all their sales with a buy.  And we closed above 50 afterhours. Dow Jones' Market Watch still bashed the stock (for shorts?) -- I called and filed and complaint this morning.  Totally seemed like some shorts were worried.

This morning Marc wrote -- I sensed it'll close above 50. It was down at the time -- it went to 47 area this morning (another headfake) -- buyers came in to kick ass.  This is no retail -- it's pros making big bets. Market tanked today and Arena's up 3.5% on strong volume -- close of 51.24. I always felt if it breaks 50 it'll go to 60 quickly. And experience shows a sharp run up in a case like this could be precursor to a buyout. Think RCPT's $7.2B deal. There are very few secrets on Wall Street.

I think when the stock is $80, Jessica Fye (copied) will still issue a $50 target (LMAO) -- or will JPM finally let loose? It's about time after being a bear for years which somehow corresponds to short interest (coincidence?) Who do the shorts bank with? I wish we knew. We wrote to SEC when they had the short selling round-table demanding that large shorts are exposed just like large longs are. The excuse of the crooks was to prevent "front running", which is total BS because that can happen with large longs being exposed as well.

After 7 years of pain, tolerating endless basing, beating, lies, deception of crooks -- and add to that JPM's bullshit sentiments -- it's about time for light of truth to dispel darkness, ARNA get fairly valued, shorts get crushed, and we get the big paycheck. Hawaii here we come -- Joe and I both spoke at the FDA -- we'll fly to Hawaii in Joe's private jet -- and give a big FUCK YOU to the hedge funds who came to the AdComm with their Doctor shills. I was in the elevator with one (LOL) during the break and the asshole fund manager was grilling the young doctor for not doing good enough of a job of bashing lorc. Our time will come again.

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Great news was out today but I don't know why the company didn't issue a press release -- but messing up public / investor relations is nothing new to Arena.

Kevin, this should have been a Press Release -- hello !! If you had a senior IR Executive he could tell you why. But you don't. You spend 60 million bucks but can't afford a senior IR executive. When you need knee surgery you get a knee surgeon. Arena's knee has been hurting for a long time and it keeps limping at our expense. Company value is a joke and y'all have not been able to get Arena fairly valued, and this is one reason.

Our guys did well. Preston did a phenomenal job, as usual. Slam dunk presentation with that salesy empathetic touch which is extremely important.

It was the longest Arena conf call I remember. Lots of analysts called, and it was all very positive.

A few traders sold today ahead of the conf call since ARNA usually drops afterwards (it's up afterhours, after tape-painters were confronted with some people like me who were happy to buy their cheap shares. Heck $50 is cheap is you ask me when ARNA should be double today!

A few investors commented afterwards:
"ELEVATE Trial Design Looks to be very, very strong and smartly designed to maximize time to market. Guidance for enrollment is way ahead of analyst expectations. This should clear the way for meaningful buyout conversations if they are going to happen. ARNA can get bought out now for a reasonable $8-10B number OR get Etrasimod to market within 3 years, along with Ralinepag, and build the next major biotech. Win-win for patient longs either way."

"I got the impression that Arena is going beyond just getting past the FDA for phase 3. Basically they are leaving nothing to chance, get trials done to commercialize Etrasimod without any delays. Ralenipag set the bar and they are now raising the bar with Etrasimod. Perspective buyers will have a clear picture of what they are acquiring and have most of the risk removed. Sell or go it alone...we win either way."

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1) One of our friends, large stock holders whom I personally met and know -- who had sold -- has bought in again -- 175,000 shares, current worth of  around $8,600,000. Welcome back! He and I were discussing today. He predicts $60 by September. I think there will be a buyout, perhaps for $150, and we could see a nice price rise like RCPT experienced, leading to buyout. Arena's Board is stacked with M&A experts.

2) Someone asked about Belviq label change. Dr. Joe wrote:  "All I know is that the FDA accepted Eisai’s request for a label change on Feb 19, 2019. I am guessing 6-8 month minimal timeline so perhaps we hear something by mid-Aug to mid- October(just a guess)".

3) Arena's quarterly call is on Wednesday this week. Live webcast available on http://invest.arenapharm.com/

4) Arena confirmed that the letter to the Board has been delivered to each board member. A copy can be found here: http://arna-info.com/

5) I watched Warren Buffet on TV today. He said two things that stood out: He said we buy when the price is good, and we don't pay to current news (of the country / economy etc.). He said he doesn't buy expecting the price to go up the next day or next week. Point: he looks for good values.  Arena I believe is in that position -- in my opinion, deeply undervalued. Secondly he reiterated his concept that he buys when others are selling. Today was perhaps a good example. ARNA went down with the rest of the market but rebounded before the market rebounded because buyers stepped in.

Do your own research.

Reza


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Just in my humble opinion: A key unspoken reason for the drop of the biotech indices this week is the April Options Expiration date coming up this Friday (technically Saturday).

There are lots of long call options and short put options that need to expire worthless, so biotech manipulation climaxes on the most important OpEx dates of the year, and April being the second most important. In Arena's case around 3600 call contracts are set to expire if the stock closes below 45 on Friday. That's equivalent to 360,000 share or around $16,000,000.

Secondly, our big partner UTHR got hit with a lawsuit by Sandoz. Has absolutely nothing to do with Arena but ARNA and UTHR have had a strong price correlation this week, due to this event. Irrational ? Yes. But I believe market makers may have just used that as an excuse to drop the price due to OpEx.

My guess is that the price will recover to a certain extent by end of the week and should bounce much higher after OpEx is behind us (by mid next week). As disclaimer, I bought on the dip -- and also sold some puts to buy more if the price stays so ridiculously low. Do your own research.

Best Regards

Reza

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"Narasimhan is budgeting about 5% of market cap — roughly $10 billion — a year for new M&A. That’s all comfortably in the range of a bolt-on for a global giant like this. And it puts them into full shopping mode at a time that M&A overall is surging in the biotech world."

https://endpts.com/its-a-sellers-world-in-biotech-ma-and-novartis-ceo-vas-narasimhan-has-his-check-book-out-and-pen-ready/

Narasimhan and Munshi are both of Indian origin - in same industry - maybe they're friends, who knows.  Last year he was among other CEO's we wrote to.

Product-wise Arena and Novartis totally match -- match made in heaven. Can't wait to to the wedding ! :)


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Folks

Someone asked me about next catalyst for Arena.

I think the next catalyst is start of P3 trials which could be big as we get insight into the detailed design of the trials, etc.

It could be announced any day - Amit said "imminent" a couple of days ago. Latest end of June I hope (they said first half).

Check this but if my memory is correct Receptos started a big rally as RPC1063 Phase 3 started leading to a big ticket buyout of $7.2B by Celgene.

Etrasimod is better safer and bigger than Ozanimod. At Needham, Amit layed this out very clearly. Here is someone's notes from this week's call.

My thoughts on the Needham Conference

I listened to the call again and I feel Amit did a nice job of summarizing the Arena story for both the present and future of the company. He stated that the Etrasimod P3 UC trial is designed to start midyear. I know many here wonder does that mean May, June, or July? Amit may have provided a clue to a more specific time frame for the P3 UC trial when he stated at the beginning of the call "The focus of our efforts over the next couple of years are going to be to move Etrasimod our lead program forward in UC and CD. We'll be starting P3 trials imminently." So maybe the UC trial will commence sooner then many of us here think. 

Amit illuminated that the oral market treatment is increasing and more physicians are turning to oral treatments over biologics. He then went on to talk about the 2 primary classes of oral agents. S1P vs Jak inhibitors, Amit clearly stated that physicians routinely select the profile of S1P modulators over Jak inhibitors due to S1P specificity as well as the various issues with Jak inhibitors including increased infection risks. Amit then asked the question, would you select a Jak inhibitor or an S1P modulator? Finally he broke down the 2 main next generation S1P modulators which we all know are Etrasimod and Ozanimod. Clinicians select E over OZ 8 out of 10 times. I know I'm regurgitating a lot of information but I do so to point out that Amit did a wonderful job explaining the Etrasimod thesis pointing to 3 steps which I just talked about. 
Step 1- Orals vs Biologics 
Step 2- SP1 vs Jak 
Step 3- Etrasimod vs Ozanimod. 
Amit is making it simple for non experts in this field (most of us fall in that group) to see the clear advantages in orals, S1P modulators, and finally Etrasimod over Ozanimod. The 3 bar graphs summarize the advantages quite nicely. 

E vs Oz- This was fun. Amit has done this in the past but yesterday he really took a dump on Ozanimod. Firstly he noted that E was developed in house a clear shot at Oz and the problems that occurred with the RTF that CELG received. He talked about lymphocyte recovery as well as best in class efficacy including clinical remission %'s. While speaking about E's safety profile he made it a point to say, "Importantly (he loves that word) unlike Ozanimod we see no cases of sinoatrial arrest." Amit then really had some fun taking shots at Ozanimod's CV profile. Again this was done very clearly with an easy side by side comparison of E and Oz CV profile. No need to get into specifics the side by side comparison speaks for itself. 

Etrasimod the "Franchise" of Arena. It's quite clear Arena intends to build this company around Etrasimod. Some quick figures that Amit highlighted yesterday. 431 autoimmune/ inflammatory conditions that are Sp1 mediated. Arena broke that number down to 35 indications that they feel have a high probability of technical success. I found it interesting that on Slide 3 in the blue section there's a bullet point that states "Initiate additional Ph2 indications etrasimod" Could they be talking about MS? Perhaps the company is taking a wait and see approach wrt Ozanimod's progression. If OZ suffers another setback I would have to think Arena would pounce on this indication. Very clear to me Etrasimod has the potential to serve as the backbone of the company. 

Quick tidbits on Olorinab. Amit and Co feel they have a gut specific pain product which has impressive market opportunities. They were hoping for a 2 point change on the AAPS pain scale (used by the FDA) instead the company saw a mean change of 4.6. The FDA's approval end point is 30% improvement in the AAPS scale. Arena at week 8 had 100% of patients had met that threshold. Amit was quick to mention on a couple of occasions that this was a tiny study but regardless the results are extremely promising. 

Allow me to end this long post with a quote from Amit when talking about our pipeline, "Arena has a basket of compounds, we have additional compounds sitting on the shelf and over time it is our intention as our cost to capital, and our capacity improves to move some of these compounds forward." As impressive as R and E look I take comfort knowing there's life after E, R, and O for Arena. Most likely R and E will be approved and as we start to take in profits from those puppies we'll be able to progress those basket of compounds. This is impressive considering the science beyond Arena's compounds historically. Our science has been validated most recently with the R deal, I have to think there are still some gems in our basket of toys. 

If this post seems to be cheerleading...... good cause I'm a cheerleader of this company. I'll be waving my pom poms as Arena advances their pipeline. I have no doubt this company will bring lucrative gains for their investors and more importantly this company is going to positively impact the daily lives of people that suffer from various conditions. 

The best is yet to come.


This is not an investment advice -- just sharing.


Regards
Reza

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http://wsw.com/webcast/needham90/register.aspx?conf=needham90&page=arna&url=http://wsw.com/webcast/needham90/arna/index.aspx


Looks like Etrasimod may get a path to approval that's as sexy as Ralinepag's -- that would be great. Wait and see... Phase 3 is to start mid-year. July 1 should be a good day according to astrologers

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Credit Suisse just Upgraded ARNA

Price target raised from $63 to $77.

Very bullish.

I've spoken with the CS analyst before. He's very bullish on Arena.

CS is Switzerland's second largest bank and has a strong global presence. Some big investors I know don't touch a stock unless it's recommended by CS.

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Shkreli the crook is sent to solitary confinement in prison. That feels GOOD after what he did to so many investors including some of us. I had contacts with him around ARNA which I published before.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/feds-investigates-martin-pharma-bro-shkreli-allegedly-running/story?id=62113959


Arena's IR tragic comedy continues. Latest episode is this job ad:

https://www.arenapharm.com/careers/?gh_jid=4225243002

Arena wants to put a college grad with one year of experience put in charge of these tasks. Latest proof that Arena's IR is clueless.

Good thing our letter to the Board is not sent yet.

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Biogen / Arena Real possibility

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4251132-biogen-reconsider-strategic-shift-neuro-degenerative-disorders

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UTHR's CEO: Ralinepag has the clearest, 7 different paths to approval with Billion+ in sales

UTHR's CEO praised ARNA's Ralinepag at the Oppenheimer conference.

- Great feedback from PAH doctors

- Doctors say they've seen something very unique in R.

- FDA granted 7 different ways to get R approved via 3 different P3 trials.

- R has one of the clearest regulatory approval paths ever.

- Selexipag is set to reach $1bil in sales. It's twice a day dosage, less attractive mechanism of action, and inferior. So Ralinepag doing $1b sales is totally in play.

- For UTHR, a clear well-documented path to approval whose model does more than a $billion a year in sales was a slam dunk NPV decision.

At a modest P/E, and lowest possible double-digit royalty, today's Arena valuation only covers Ralinepag potential. Add to it Arena's crown jewel, Etrasimod and so much more, and that tells us ARNA is grossly undervalued by any calculation except JP Morgan's (LoL)... Who is the big broker for the 3.5m short interest?

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I was helping plant trees yesterday - afterwards walking with the guitar met a man in the middle of a Swiss farming area - he was very friendly and spoke perfect English - I could smell money - and I was right - he just sold his financial services to a large company and retired with mega bucks.

Told him about ARNA. He was pretty knowledgeable about the biotech field - knows Ozanimod etc. - never heard of ARNA but pulled up the quote on his cell phone and first thing he looked at was market cap. TWO BILLION! he exclaimed. He was shocked ARNA is only worth $2B after hearing the story from me on  the true value of Arena (see below).

Ya thanks to our terrible Investor Relations and Corp Comm and messaging and marketing and publicity arm. Some of us are writing to the Board to put a stop to this catastrophic ineffective approach - a letter is in the works.

Arena management don't seem to get the problem of valuation -- and meanwhile our IR people and management have boasted repeatedly about how successful they've been in boosting share price (NOT -- 2B valuation for all these goods is a shameful performance Mr. Munshi) -- and they're so proud they issued cheap shares to institutions for our GREAT data so institutional interest went up. Complacency all the way.

On a positive note: Check out Oppenheimer fireside chat with our partner UTHR's CEO who's got nothing but praise for Ralinepag ( https://www.veracast.com/webcasts/opco/healthcare2019/19112279879.cfm )


MY NOTES

- Great feedback from PAH doctors

- Docs said they saw something very unique in R

- FDA granted 7 different ways to get approval via 3 diff p3 trials -- so many ways to get it approved (mix and match)

- One of the clearest regulatroy paths seen -- for an agent doctors love

- 600m sales for Selexipag -- going over 1 billion. 2 times a day. less attractive mech of action than Ralinepag   (Arena's R is superior to S which does a Bil a year).

- clear well documented path to approval whose model does more than a bil a year - was a slam dunk NPV decision

- aside from 400m more Arena will get (on top of the 800m received) -- Arena gets royalties -- lowest double digit royalty on 1 bil is 100m/year for Arena in revenue which by itself is more than the current stock price at average PE.   Add to it cash position and the other gem that's even more valuable than Etrasimod......... and $100/share seems dirt cheap ----- $45.6 ridiculously low.

BOTTOM LINE: ARENA CORPORATE HAS *SUCKED* AT GETTING ARENA FAIRLY VALUED. But their habit -- from years of bad performance before Amit's time, inherited through Steven Spector and old timer board members and other figures of the last regime -- is to blame outside forces, markets, doctors, economy, investors, EVERYBODY AND THEIR MOTHER except themselves :-) ..... so they have the same inept lazy ineffective approach towards the entire topic of relationship with investment community and of course they won't get different results. 

It's the same inept approach as Jack's era -- scientists head down in the lab doing the "right thing" thinking investors will line up. When will you wake up Amit and right this wrong? You spend MILLIONS in admin costs -- I'm sure you can afford to RESET this critical area which you've apparently ignored (that's part of the same corporate culture is to ignore this area). 

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Haha I always knew Dr. Joe is VERY smart but now I'm convinced he's a genius.

His stock picks have been amazing -- last time I asked him for some ideas, one of the ones he told me about, I didn't want to touch and was very skeptical about -- since it's almost tripled!

I currently consider him my biotech investing guru. Though he's very humble and has no claims. His career is as stellar as it can be - e.g. a Principle Senior Analyst for a Big Pharma! Not bad.

His top pick is currently ARNA (Arena Pharma) which is also my top pick. Some of us have helped each other hang in there through the turmoil, many folks through the years like Dr. Vig, Dr. Lopez, and Dr. Joe is right up there too for me, since he's helped me understand what a gem ARNA is.

His next top pick he's turned me on to is ZSAN. I spoke with the analyst which covers the company today. He's a migraine coverage specialist and is very bullish on the stock, considers it undervalued and think a lot of people will jump on board eventually. His just reiterated his BUY rating and $19 price target after yesterday's quarterly call. The stock is at 4.76 (he sees it as a 4-bagger).

Do your own research. This is not an investment advice. Just sharing ideas.

Regards

PS -- check out www.end5g.com

Reza

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ARNA: Nasdaq opening bell

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvgB-N5Kbuc

Amit's interview today with TD Ameritrade: https://tdameritradenetwork.com/video/rB4AoWk8FgWBaU6TZ20DPw

"With $1.3 Billion In Cash, Arena Poised To Move"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4246335-1_3-billion-cash-arena-poised-move?app=1


"Arena management will ring NASDAQ opening bell today at 9:30 EST"


9h9 hours ago



Tomorrow, our team will be in to ring the Opening Bell to celebrate a successful 2018 and our 2019 plan to deliver novel, transformational medicines with optimized pharmacology and pharmacokinetics to patients globally.

https://twitter.com/hashtag/RewriteTomorrow?src=hash

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ARNA is a ripe takeover target. Common knowledge. Some big entities (like Credit Suisse) even listed ARNA as a buyout target. Many investors believe maximizing shareholder value is in selling of Arena.

We can think of several suitors, but recent events seem to point to NOVARTIS as a prime candidate to buy Arena. Why?

See the note from a doctor below. There are some other additional tidbits, perhaps insignificant, i.e., that Arena was in Switzerland on 12 December 2018, with Leerink. Why? Did they meet Novartis? Tina Nova, Arena's board member, sold a company to Novartis. Novartis CEO is of Indian origin like Amit -- maybe they're friends? Arena has three veteran directors who specialize in mergers and have done mega deals before.

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By a Medical Doctor/Investor

"I think Novartis is the company that is the leading candidate to purchase Arena.  This is based on the following.

1) Novartis' experience with Gilenya (the original S1P1 modulator) that has already lost patent protection in Europe and will soon lose patent protection in the US.

 

2) Novartis'  interest in expanding Gilenya into other indications but inability to this because of side effects in less severe conditions.

 

3) Novartis' interest in dermatologic conditions and Arena's addition of atopic dermatitis as the next major indication for etrasimod. 

 

4) Novartis' interest in Gilenya for asthma and now Amit is suddenly discussing pre clinical mouse data for a novel S1P1 modulator for asthma that Arena has on the shelf.

 

5) The previous meeting in Zurich  with Arena and Leerink (their primary investment banker) 1 hour from the Novartis headquarters.


I think Arena is positioning themselves either based on Novartis' direct requests or to make themselves attractive to Novartis.  Wishful thinking or informed speculation?  All IMO. "


do your own research

to be removed, reply with remove



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7 points about ARNA, including a question for JPM's Jessica Fye.

  • United Therapeutics in their conference call very highly praised Arena for the progress made at FDA. Road to approval of Ralinepag seem clear.
  • Multiple analysts issued upgraded price targets and very positive sentiments about Arena. Notable are $79 price targets from two analysts. I've often wondered if JPM is in bed with shorts. Jessica Fye's price target is basically today's price, which is incredibly off! Every other analyst has a higher price target. A couple of highly respected analysts have a $79 price target. 
Short position is currently 3.4m shares (34 million pre-RSS level). I'm thinking of requesting an investigation from FINRA/SEC into JPM's Equity Research. Some big brokers don't take the SEC's "Chinese Wall" rule seriously and their research is truly "dependent" and not "independent/impartial/fair".
Arena's shorted positions are at a broker. Where? Where better than JPM with their incessant low-balling of the share price? I suspect they may have been batting for shorts for a long time and I'm getting tired of it. @Jessica, if you have any comments, I'd love to hear it. TIA. 
  • Arena's quarterly call showed excellent progress on a number of fronts.
  • The stock is still in the toilette and Arena can do some things to change that. One area that needs desperate improvement is IR/CorpComm. Some of us, including some large investors holding millions of dollars worth of stock, are very frustrated about this, for very good reasons -- sloppy handling of some areas, etc. etc. -- it goes back in company's history and Jack Lief / Steven Spector etc. culture. A letter is being drafted to the Board with some concrete suggestions.
  • Arena is not the only company some of us have invested in, and we've dealt with effective IR organizations before. So side by side comparison speaks volumes, mainly around the role of IR in the company, but also in the seniority/caliber of the people who run it, their charter, goals, and the results achieved.
Multiple people at Arena have boasted over time about their great accomplishments by citing increase institutional interest, and share price. Those false metrics can cause some complacency. False, because,  tute% increase happened when Arena gave away incredibly positive data for incredibly cheap -- and the rise in stock price from a historical standpoint, and compared to real value of the company, is insignificant. But we'll deal with a wake up call to the Board.
  • Shorts are still playing their games, but stock action shows they don't have the muscle they once had. Arena can absolutely make a difference (see above) by professionally and strategically addressing the demand side. The supply side is perfect -- probably no more raises till profitability or acquisition. But the demand side is still dented from Jack Lief disaster years, and Arena's IR is still not getting it.
  • It seems that following the financial results the investment community has woken up to the fact that Arena has $1.3b in the bank, which is fantastic. This could help the stock get closer to fair value (at least double current price), if Arena plays its cards right. 


Best Regards

Reza Ganjavi

www.end5g.com

www.arna-info.com

www.rezamusic.com

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It's enough to read this ;-)

As of February 1, 2019 Arena's cash, cash equivalents and investments balance was over $1.3 billion.

the rest:

http://invest.arenapharm.com/news-releases/news-release-details/arena-pharmaceuticals-provides-corporate-update-and-reports-17

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ARNA - bullish options alert

Hi Folks

Do your own research as usual... but my crystal ball says something may be up.
Someone(s) is very optimistic about the next 2.5 weeks.

March which is usually a quiet option month (unlike Jan, Apr), is showing activity, e.g., someone's been buying the $60 call today and yesterday which indicated s/he expects it to go over 60 in the next 2.5 weeks. I see other bullish trades too. Who knows...

Also, I like the recent "composition" of the stock. It seems to be growing organically without being too corrupted by momentum/swing/day traders.

Shorts are still a problem because they manipulate, cap, drip sale, etc.. Arena can do something to kick their ass. Things it historically didn't do well and still has a LOT of room to grow in some of these areas: surprising, being very tight-lipped, promoting itself / nurturing relationships with the investment community which drives demand.

All the above, IMHO, and not investment advice.

Regards
Reza

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Arena -- Eisai news

I know some people, probably including Amit, hate Belviq, but I love it, and still think it has the chance to help masses of obese people and generate substantial revenue for Eisai and Arena.  One step closer...

WOODCLIFF LAKE, N.J., Feb. 25, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Eisai Inc. announced today that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has accepted its supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) to potentially update the label for BELVIQ® (lorcaserin HCl) CIV 10 mg twice-daily/BELVIQ XR (lorcaserin HCl) CIV once daily to include long-term efficacy and safety data from CAMELLIA-TIMI 61, a clinical trial of BELVIQ in 12,000 overweight and obese patients with cardiovascular (CV) disease and/or multiple CV risk factors such as type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

The addition of this data has the potential for a revision to the product label's Indications and Usage, removing the Limitation of Use related to the effect of BELVIQ on CV morbidity and mortality.

As previously reported and published in the New England Journal of Medicine on August 26th, CAMELLIA-TIMI 61 met its primary safety objective, finding that long-term treatment with BELVIQ did not increase the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in overweight and obese patients at high risk for a CV event (HR 0.99; 95% CI: 0.85 to 1.14; p<0.001). Since the study met the primary safety endpoint for non-inferiority for MACE, the study continued to assess for the primary efficacy endpoint of whether or not BELVIQ reduced the incidence of major CV events compared to placebo for a broader composite endpoint, MACE+, consisting of CV death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, hospitalization due to unstable angina, heart failure or coronary revascularization. Although superiority to placebo was not met, BELVIQ was non-inferior to placebo on the MACE+ composite, with similar event rates for BELVIQ and placebo.  

"This sNDA file acceptance brings us one step closer to potentially incorporating data into our label based on the first completed large-scale cardiovascular outcomes trial for a weight loss agent," said Lynn Kramer, M.D., Chief Clinical Officer and Chief Medical Officer, Neurology Business Group, Eisai. "We are excited about our data as it showed BELVIQ did not increase the incidence of MACE and look forward to continuing our discussions with the FDA."


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ARNA breaks the $50 barrier

It's too early to celebrate but a minor one is in order as Friday's closing price was the highest in four years, and ARNA's been up 9 weeks in a row. I remember a pro investor friend pointing to some stocks that do vertical takeoffs at some point and there's no looking back. We might be at that point. On the other hand, the volume was below average, all the related indices rallied as well, and Arena still has some issues to deal with. If we had the kind of IR department some of our peers have, we'd be out of this swamp a long time ago.

It's a nice place to take a break and drink some nectar at this oasis. Long-term weary shareholders have been carrying a weight for a long time. Many threw in the towel and couldn't take the manipulation, stupidities and incompetence any more. We deserve a nice reward for our perseverance. Sell Amit Sell :)

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Options crystal ball says ARNA should go above 50 soon (of course you never know / depends on markets etc. etc.) but judging by options actions, investors seem to be betting on a move above 50.

Mind you, 50.05 is 52 week high, so breaking through that is a strong technical indicator.

I assume 50 will be a battleground but if people don't sell, buyers / shorts will have to bid it up.

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Preface

Let's all plan to get our shares out of circulation starting next week. At least temporarily. It should give a nice shock to shorts / clearing agents. Taking our shares out of circulation will help the stock price. We retail holders, own 20% of the company -- that's 10m shares = $500m of stock. What we do matters!

Amit gave away a chunk of the company for cheap through a rushed, premature financing on top of two golden data sets. And he keeps boasting about rise in institutional interest -- which is an insult to us who've supported the company for years, through thick and thin -- I've never heard a CEO take pride in that. As it stands, his favorite tutes reduced their position a bit and retail still holds 20%.

$500m ownership should be enough to get Arena to have Arena grow up from a kindergarten looking IR style.  Imagine how you're treated if you go to UBS saying, hey, I'm a ultra high net worth (UHNW) person with 500 million cash to put in your bank. You'd get a treatment of kings. I KNOW this because I know UHNW relationship managers.  In meeting with me and Jack Lief, Steven Spector shared their attitude that retail investors should be ignored (LMAO). Surprise that the same lame attitude seemed to be adopted by Amit (boasting about less retail).

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Let's say upon information and observation...  (and not out of thin air), there's indication (and common sense) that when Arena shares are taken out of circulation it impacts the stock positively. Why? 

Real Shares vs. Placeholders

When you buy and sell shares it's likely think air you're buying and selling -- a virtual promissory note -- an accounting entry.  "Real" shares also exist but the market is flooded with phantom and "virtual" shares / shares that are supposed to be IN an account but they're not, except for a booking entry.

For example: let's say you buy a 1000 shares of ARNA today. You have a margin account. Takes a couple of days to "settle". Your broker's Clearing Agent books a 1000 shares in your account, which may leave your account as soon as it gets there (if ever in reality) if the agent has demand to lend it out for income. That "securities lending" sphere is sort of a gray market (dark pool like) which is invisible to us -- brokers deal in it. Also means when you buy, and shares settle, the agent is supposed to put those shares in your account but it may never actually get there; similarly, when you sell.

I'm no expert in this but what I do know for sure, is that when you TAKE YOUR SHARES OUT OF CIRCULATION, your shares can't be used to create phantom shares, etc. and that helps the stock by

a) reducing supplyb) forcing a recall which means somebody will have to come up with "real shares" in midst of their wheeling/dealing (using the shares in your account)

Impact

If you look at the bid/ask spread of ARNA, and effect of any significant buying on share price, you'd think that any decrease in supply / forced recall, can help the stock go up.  I've seen this directly.

How to take your shares out of circulation

1) The best and surest way is to have your broker send your shares of ARNA to the TRANSFER AGENT. Computershare (C.S.). Request needs to be made to your broker. They'll do the rest. They'll DTC the shares to C.S. -- if you don't have an account, C.S. will open an account. Within 48 hours shares are there. You can buy and sell there if you want but you probably don't want to since C.S.'s best purpose is safekeeping. Once shares are there, they're out of circulation. Broker's clearing agent needs to recall any lent out shares before the transfer which is positive for the stock price (reduced supply).

You can take your shares back to the broker using the same process -- broker initiates it and it's back in your account in 48 hours.

C.S. does not charge any fees for this. Most brokers also don't or the cost is nominal.

2) Keep your shares in a CASH (Type 1) account with Auto-journaling turned off. You can instruct your broker to do this.

3) Get stock certificate (not my favorite route).

I am personally planning to send all my shares to Computershare next week, to get them out of circulation. Would be fun to see the impact on share price if a bunch of us takes our shares out of circulation.

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The notes below come from a Big Pharma executive, an ex-CEO, a professional money manager, and a medical doctor. They're all long term shareholders of ARNA and all hold a substantial number of shares. I fully agree with them, and am staying in the race for the big prize, i.e., imho, a lucrative buyout, hoping Arena "resets" its apparently lousy IR approach that's been a let down over the years (valuation is the proof for anyone who understands the simple supply/demand dynamics). Imagine what could happen to the stock price if this joke of an IR/PR/CorpComms is transformed. These are not investment advice, do your own research.

Let's start with a funny one... which I fully agree with...

By The Way, Arna IR sucks like none I have ever seen before... I am in for the long haul... Once again, IR at Arna is a fucking sad joke.

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Hi Reza...  I am still buying and my buying is 100% based on the science, portfolio and management.  I tell everyone to remain being patient... IMO, the market is only now beginning to better understand Arena's pipeline portfolio... Belviq quietly opened the development/drug approval door for Ralinepag, Etrasimod, Olorinab, etc.  Each is a multi-billion dollar drug.  IMO, these drugs will receive world-wide approval.  The questions really are: how many indications will each one received and which pharma company will hold those approvals...?   Hang in there, my friend!  IMO, it will get a lot better soon...

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hi reza,   i still have my arena shares , a lot of them,  have not really sold any over the years and have added some from time to time.....arena  has been going up in recent months and has a boatload of cash to do studies after the pulmonary artery hypertension deal..... etrasimod is their best drug..... olorinab looks promising.... the heart failure intravenous drug looks promising but early....  would not mind seeing arena get bought out by big pharma at some point...

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I am even more angry since this original email [that said ARNA is a "Hold"] since we have now gotten excellent Phase 2 test results for 371 and it is nearly 9 months later and it is still at $4 stock (pre-RS "real" dollars ). Absolutely awful!  [ya I blame the management and Arena's apparently useless, ineffective, sloppy, inept IR approach]. 

It is still a hold as it would be foolish to sell here after all that shareholders have endured and the promise of a favorable resolution to this situation quite possible by year end. Best.

Best Regards

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Kevin these are not average people -- these are long term big investors with prestigious careers. Amit's deaf ears on this topic has cost us a lot. Please forward and ask him to open his ears. Even a grain of truth in this should cause a badly needed reset.

Unfortunately I have to agree with him. Arena's not the first company I've invested in and I've NEVER seen such miserable mishandling of IR. Arena's like a car with one flat tire (IR), and that's why we're stuck in this price range.

-------- Forwarded Message --------


By The Way, Arna IR sucks like none I have ever seen before...
 
...

Once again, IR at Arna is a fucking sad joke.
Cheers
   

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Arena is a few pennies shy of 52 week high. Latest institutional numbers are out. Insignificant decrease - with many shares moving to biotech specialist funds who understand this space well.

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Trump is clinically obese which AMA says is a disease but his doctor says he's healthy. Belviq could help him. Wouldn't that be fun -- he takes Belviq and loses 50 pounds with no side effects, and tweets about it !!!!!

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Some idiot wrote that Arena's IR was perfect until investors flooded it... I wrote him this:

Hey Joe [it's not Dr. Joe, or Attorney Joe -- it's another Joe, in Illinois]

Listen to yourself... so Arena's IR was perfect before a group of investors decided to flood it. LMAO.

I guess you deserved CMG, Arena's selective disclosure to big vs. small, heads up to some investors about upcoming deal, IR's top dog having no clue about IR, no experience and education about it, that's what you call perfect. Good for you.

Some of us feel very differently. Arena's IR sucked way before we were around. Their pathetic way of handling investor communications led to a 8 year lawsuit that cost the shareholder millions. Their IR still sucks. But you're entitled to you stupid opinion thinking it was perfect and it just starting sucking b/c of some investors LMAO.

Have a lovely day

Reza

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Just got this from a PhD Arena investor (it's not an investment advice)

"In my mind this (ARNA) is the only sure thing that I own. If I can buy more I will... it looks like ARNA is sitting at some reasonable support (see below/convergence of two trend lines). "

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Just sharing my 2-cents impression

This is purely a guess, not out of the blue but based on experience and observation -- still, do your own research.

I believe:

  • the desire for shares we saw the last couple of weeks has gone anywhere; it's just hiding on the sidelines.
  • orders to buy are still there, on hold, to see how many people will get suckered into giving up their shares due to fear or impatience.
  • years of sticking with this has taught me to be tough. One of our medical doctor friends, a long time investor in ARNA y'all know, told me recently:
    • "the science is there and it will prevail.  Other pharmas know this.  Having come this far I can't see bailing out when we finally see land in so near in the horizon."
  • the stock is forming support, which means, impatient people and sellers for whatever reason, sell into the low bid, and once they're done, the price is bid up -- professionals don't bid up the price when they smell sellers, especially weak retail who falls for fear. And we've seen it many times, esp. recently, that any significant volume of buying makes the stock go ballistic.

I'm hanging in there. Tired and weary for sure, but I'm with the good doctor, seeing the shore ahead. I just know, if I sell, it will be very hard to buy it back, and the shares will get gobbled up. So, not selling here. We're very close to 50. I think of it as distance of 4.80 to 5.00 in pre-reverse-split days.

This is not an investment advice -- just sharing of ideas.


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If any of you are into TA maybe you can help me understand especially the longer term chart and why future trend has any correlation to distance past. Thanks

These are from a technical analyst who's predicting a parabolic move to 60.

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Notable option trades (8 Feb) -- these are verified by looking at updated open interest.

Someone spent over $10,000 expecting the stock will be over $73.40 sometime in the next 11 months. 

Someone spent $4000 expecting stock will be over $65 in the next 2 months.

Someone spent $4000 expecting stock will be over $62 in the next 6 months. 

There are bets the stock will go over $52 and $55 in the next month.

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ARNA - yesterday's day-end rebound

Haha, someone wrote that yesterday's drop was supposed to make it drop further because of technical character of it. Of course I believe it was a fabricated drop because I've seen what happens when buyers stand to the side to let gullible sellers go for the ridiculously low bids.

I detected this a few minutes before the market close yesterday. I saw it dropped from 48.15 to 47.50 on very little volume. RIght or wrong I saw it as a fake drop. If it was real, the asks would have been loaded by people who'd want to sell for real, but there were no such sellers.

So I decided to go for it. I placed an order a couple of cents above the ask. My order took out the ask at 45.5x, and in the minutes that followed the stock went to 45.90 !!  That's a fake drop for you. And also shows what one buy of not that big of a size can do.

So my hypothesis is market makers can get orders from institutions / funds - and not rush to fill it - and step back for sellers to get dried up - and then buy very slowly - they know any buying pressure make the stock go through the roof. I'm a retail guy and my small buy made the stock go up 50 cents !! Imagine what a bigger buy could do.

I believe some of the recent run up was due to short covering. Shorts know Arena and that the 800m is not priced in (can't be). But they play games trying to raise their cost (sales) basis. But very few shares were sold from 49.50 to 47.50 by my estimates -- a couple of million dollars. So it's not working for shorts. Also I believe some momo players exited which is a good thing.

Also, ARNA has acted contrary to market sometimes. Today, market futures are down. Biotech isn't necessarily correlated. Short term it could do anything -- but of course I remain very bullish in the long term. Selling some shares felt good. Buying them again felt better. I don't think it's addiction of craze that makes people like me, and several doctors/PhD's I know, invest so much in ARNA.

All of course IMHO. This is not an investment advice.

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ARNA - fake drop on low volum

Haha, the volume was so pathetic -- no real sellers -- and buyers sitting on the sideline waiting for correction.

So what do market makers do? drop the bid, and sell into it with tiny lots and walk it down.

Happened to see it, so I jumped on at 47.50 with a buy and within seconds it took off to 47.87 just before the close and closed at 47.92 as I type this.

Therefore I call it a fake drop

Just sharing my observations and opinions. Not giving investment advice.

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ARNA - bid/ask/market

Tried to buy some shares. The spreads between bid and ask are insane. At some point the bid was 48.26 and ask 48.78.

So what does a novice investor do? Sell at "market". I tried it with a few shares just to see what happens. It executes at ask or higher if you're buying!

The buyer has to pick a price s/he is willing to pay and put that as a limit price.  Market orders means getting taken to cleaners.

The stock dropped significantly on barely any volume. It tells me it's a technical breather, where buyers are stepping aside, momo-players exiting -- which I believe is a good thing. It serves as a based for the next leg up (I assume it'll be up beyond the day to day ultra-short-term moves).

By the way, I had to take the domain redirect address of arna-info.com since someone hijacked arna-info off yola - probably a short But the url stays the same www.arna-info.com

Do your own research.


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ARNA: new article

Thanks Bill for sending this... Funny the author links to the video of Amit on my (secondary) channel. Feel free to subscribe to my primary channel by clicking on this:  https://www.youtube.com/user/rezaganjavi?sub_confirmation=1

I have a lot more subscribers on the secondary channel because I posted a video of Dr. David Bohm (physicist) which has had 140k visitors.

Hi Reza,

I just received this and thought it may interest you.  Looks like some are starting to become aware of ARNA.


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After a long time of not paying attention to the "tape", I took a look at the ticker the last couple of days to get a sense of the deeper currents of the stock.

I could be wrong but to me it seems that there's quiet accumulation. Some party/parties seem interested in buying significant number of shares, and have an algorithm to do that with, which quietly, yet incessantly, bites at the ask(offer) but is smart enough to adjust itself based on action of other participants, including sitting out. This would make sense given the $800m is still not priced in and we're not the only parties who know that.

It reminds me of a client at a major Swiss bank -- a relationship manager for high net-worth individuals in Monaco. He said always go slowly, little by little. It's probably just amateur retail investors who trade a big chunk at once (and worse, use "market" orders). So it seems somebody is buying little by little. We know large institutional orders can takes many days to fill.

It seems to be a sellers' market, and will be so for a while if overall market stays strong. Arena needs to get to fair value. 

OVERALL MARKET

For the market pessimists (and I am one of them sometimes esp. when there's too much Trump drama), January was a strong month for the stock market -- historically it's known that a year is determined by its January performance. Also Trump is motivated to have good markets because he wants to get reelected -- so he won't do crazy things (fingers crossed) and will make a deal with China, etc.

These are of course my humble opinions and not investment advice. Just sharing opinions / observations.

Regards

An ARNA addict! [because the potential is soooo gooood] :)


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ARNA: clear "hang in there - reward is near" sign (for me)

check the attached card. it's a tarot card. as a scientist I am skeptical about these things. but I am open to signs.

I had a tarot reading (first in my life). In the car. She looked before leaving to not leave any cards behind. But this one card stayed behind.

She said it makes sense. It's a spiritual homecoming, the old man carrying the rods/wands, and he's almost there. The city is in sight. 10 is completion. So something is coming to completion after a long hard journey. I love the smile on his face.

Call me superstitious but after this long tough ride with ARNA, this card was a nice boost to my motive to stay in the game. Not give up. The end is near -- hopefully, with ARNA getting bought out at a sweet premium.

I thought I'd share it because I know a few of you at least are in the same boat -- tired and weary -- and this might help you as much as it's helping me right now to "hang in there - the reward is near".

Not telling you how to invest - do your own research.

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Wrote this dirty email to Arena. If it wasn't for the science I'd be long gone but I am hanging around as a FUCK YOU to the management -- since the science will prevail despite them, as a doctor friend said last weekend.  Feel free to post it on social media including this intro -- I don't give a shit


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KEVIN, PLEASE FORWARD TO AMIT MUNSHI ELSE YOU HELP HIM RIDE IN HIS IGNORANCE AT MY AND OTHER SHAREHOLDERS' COST.

"During the recent J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, Mizuho analyst Salim Syed noted that Biogen has $13 billion worth of financing to devote to making deals."

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/alzheimer-s-pipeline-concerns-steal-spotlight-from-biogen-s-strong-q4-results

In 2012-13 we told Jack's gang to sell. He could have for multiple billions. Then our valuation went under 500m because of the piss poor management they like to blame on doctors.

Jack was a market research guy. Eisai had multiple pros. Belviq should have succeeded. They hadn't read it wrong. Jack and his weak lousy team failed to stand up for us and hedge fund shorts had a ball and avoided $100m loss.

Now we're suggesting you sell. Amit's attitude is backward, stone age.  You wanna dance, you put yourself up for dancing.  He'll fail in standing there looking pretty waiting for the knock. That's the same lameass attitude of Lief/Spector et al that got us into this hole we're in.

YOU DON'T BELIEVE WE'RE IN A HOLE? LOOK AT THE VALUATION. $800M NEW FUND DIDN'T DO *SHIT* FOR THE STOCK.

Keep pointing the finger outside. But THE PROBLEM IS ARENA AND ITS LOUSY CULTURE AND WEAK CEO who's just gotten sucked into that culture which enjoys its pre-planned stock dumps and that's all.

Wake up Amit. Now you wanna burn through over  $1B and your shareholders get NOTHING because that's Arena's shitty lousy culture.

Excuse my French but I'm pissed at years of lousy management running this company. Pretending to work but getting NO RESULTS. ZILCH. Reminder achievement is measured by increase in company value (a joke for Arena's lousy culture which just benefits the insiders and now they have job security with that billion in the bank -- so FUCK THE SHAREHOLDERS).

THANK YOU

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Trend

Arena Pharmaceuticals lies in the middle of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 17.46% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between $44.77 and $55.26 at the end of this period.

Nice chart on https://stockinvest.us/technical-analysis/ARNA


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Good news. $800 million added to Arena's bank account:

https://ir.unither.com/news-releases/news-release-details/united-therapeutics-announces-closing-license-agreement-arena

http://invest.arenapharm.com/news-releases/news-release-details/arena-pharmaceuticals-announces-closing-global-license-agreement

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A bit of TA:

Three month chart shows a clear "inverse head&shoulder" formation which chartists believe is a setup for a breakup to the upside. See attached.

If the f'in juvenile government shutdown is over soon (I thought Mexico was going to pay for the f'in wall), we should get the deal approved which I'm willing to bet will get a boost to the share price. $800 million added to the bank account should raise valuation.

Do your own research.



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IMPORTANT ARNA update // Amit's grade -- FOR AMIT MUNSHI via KEVIN KIND

Dear Kevin, please forward to Amit Munshi.

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Hi Folks. Been super busy to send any updates but a lot seems to be happening around Arena (Nasdaq: ARNA).

My nose says something is up. The stock was unusually strong today - kept roaring into 44's despite profit takers / day traders and managed to close above $44.

The UTHR deal should get final regulatory approva and that secures $800m in Arena's bank plus milestone payments. Over a $billion in the bank is a solid foundation and envy of many biotechs in our stage of development. That's Ralinepag and is worth billions. We apparently gave it away for this cash to focus on Etrasimod, our crown jewel. But we will share future success via royalty and milestone payments.

Another set of data was released on Etrasimod, that strengthened previous stellar data. Both Ralinepag and Etrasimod data sets are the kind Big Pharma drools over and showed again that Etrasimod is much better than Ozanimod, which Celgene bought for over $7 billion !!  Celgene itself was acquired recently.

And the entire Arena is worth $2.1billion right now! What a joke! ARNA is deeply undervalued. But can management get us the value we deserve? That's the billion dollar question. My short answer is, I don't think so, unless they sell the company. That opinion is based on the notion that Amit Munshi, despite all the repeated boasting about his RESET efforts, have failed the RESET the area in Arena which required the biggest RESET -- and that's what directly influences demand for shares, which directly influences company value. Amit seemingly took his eyes off that ball -- fell for status quo -- Steven Spector being there who was a senior officer of the last failed regime does not help when we talk about changing the ineffective ways of the past -- the very same weaknesses in the Jack/Steven/etc. world slipping right into the new regime. Amit & Co. underestimated what we told them -- were too arrogant to take us seriously -- but guess what: we were right, again!

If any of you have talked to Arena's Investor Relations please enlighten me. Amit's failed to address some of the major dents that Lief/Spector/et al. regime caused to the demand channel, in terms of image, etc.  -- and they seem to be making the same frikin mistake again by relying on science to fix a management screw-up.

Jack Lief was wrong again and again about this -- his whole approach was twisted, and wicked for the shareholders. I don't even know if he was sincere. How could anyone screw up so bad? Kevin Lind is sincere. Amit too, but that's not enough.

My hope is they're prepping to sell the company and letting the relatively new directors who are M&A experts call the shots because as is, I have no faith in this team's relationship skills -- Amit's relationship skill seems to be in giving away great data for cheap (see both R&E deal / dilutions) and utterly failing to address the demand channel issues that we pointed out and instituting a killer internal IR powerhouse. No idea what the guy's problem is -- same as Jack Lief apparently being threatened if he gets an IR heavyweight?

Best he's done is to get an external firm -- LifeSci, who has a gzillion other customers, with a guy from Russo in charge of media relations (LMFAO). When did you see the last media article about Arena?

And the internal team, if it even exists, seems to do NOTHING, ZILCH, that makes a difference to the demand as evidenced by the share price -- 2 AMAZING sets of data worth billions each plus plus plus and we struggle to hold $2b valuation. WAKE UP AMIT! Put down the cigar and get to work with focus on HOW CAN I MAKE ARENA VALUE RISE? Then go to your basic principle you studied in High School: SUPPLY & DEMAND.

  • You've killed the price with massive SUPPLY (shares issued at deep discount to lure institutions he's so proud of as though retail who supported this company for 18 years don't count).
  • You've failed to boost the demand channel which starts with FIXING the dents your predecessor and current team's lousy approach towards the subject created, and then spurring it in classical marketing ways which includes the good old American principles of customer and prospect relationship management. "F" is your grade in this area. Did Spector tell you it doesn't count (LoL)?

Other news:

  • Wells Fargo: We are maintaining our OUTPERFORM rating on shares of Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) following positive phase 2 OASIS data for etrasimod in ulcerative colitis (UC). Overall results support a best in class profile in our view and should bode well for positive phase 3 results and commercial success... Full data from the OLE are expected at a future medical meeting.
  • Arena is hiring like crazy in Boston which is a large biotech hub like San Diego.
  • Ralinepag seems to have received Orphan drug status in Europe. Why didn't Arena issue an IR? Did Steven Spector say it's a sin to PR it?

I'm tired after YEARS of waiting for Arena's management to get the company valued fairly. Amit followed Jack Lief in being a total failure in that regard.

Keeping fingers crossed for Amit to put down the cigar and start paying attention to what we're told him since the day he came to the office. Sure Amit, you know better. If you did, why have you been a total failure in driving company value? A bit of introspection can help. Collective ignorance will tell you: oh those stupid retail, they don't know. But we've been proven right, again! The proof is in the pudding: Arena's Enterprise Value. It's your ultimate report card, and so far your overall grade is a resounding "D-minus".

Good luck. Just do it. Let's see you put an ad out for a heavy weight IR/PR/CorpComm person and LET HIM WORK and do the necessary RESET. You'd be surprised.

Regards
Reza Ganjavi

All the above are my opinions. Do your own research.

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Power of Rotten Status Quo -- letter to Amit Munshi

Dear Kevin:  PLEASE FORWARD TO AMIT -- THIS IS IMPORTANT -- IF YOU DON'T YOU'RE HELPING AMIT STAY IN THE DARK AND THAT HURTS ARENA.

And someone please forward this to the board members -- I don't have the bandwidth. It's Arena's single biggest problem and Amit doesn't seem to care -- he's on record saying data is all that matters. We got the data -- it was GREAT -- but the stock still suffered because obviously Amit was wrong. But he still doesn't get it. If he did, we would have a top notch IR/Comms department headed by a heavy weight that's not "hiding behind a curtain" like Knight, Rieter, etc. -- and don't remind me Lief had Audet as head of IR -- what an effin joke!! The guy had ZERO experience in IR or even talent in it.

That bullshit continues to today. The result  ? look at the stock price. Of course, rotten status quo blames it on a hundred external factors. But the problem is from within. Let's hope Amit does something about it and STOPS ignoring this -- did he say RESET? That was a good joke! This ineffective style of managing IR and comms was inherited right from the Lief disaster and hasn't changed a bit. Even the outsourced Comms guy is an ex-Russo guy!! Surprise!

ARENA NEEDS AN INTERNAL IR/COMMS HEAVY WEIGHT. BEEN SAYING THIS FOR 6 YEARS AND THEY STILL DON'T GET IT. Power of rotten status quo

Dear Amit
Check out these profiles. These are the kinds of people who answer investor calls, make IR calls, are the one brain behind the comms, provide strategic IR (a non-existent term in Arena world), and NOT the CFO. This is NOT Kevin's job -- the rest of your team appear as paper pushers and don't count in this equation and the proof is whatever your joke of an IR team have  been busy with HAS NOT WORKED.

http://uniqure.com/about/management-team-maria-cantor.php

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ianclements

This is the caliber of people you need to help you dig Arena out of the hole Jack / Steven / Cindy / Craig and now Amit et al got us into.

LifeSci is a joke (measured by their impact on Arena stock price -- very dismal performance), so is your current internal IR group (if it even exists). You need a serious big mind to grab this bull by the horns. You have the money. You're burning enough money. Time to put this lagging area of the company into hands of a high caliber person to take this sucker. Enough for goofing around. What you've done so far has NOT worked. You can do all the great science but if your IR/Comms suck you'll be stuck. LifeSci won't do it for you - they got a gzillion other clients. You need an internal person -- public facing -- not a chicken who needs to hide and do back office work.

I hope you get my point. Just do it my friend. For once listen to us on this topic. We told you this since day one but you haven't listened. Arena still SUCKS in IR/Comms -- and that's more than doing some powerpoint or being really busy. It's NOT WORKING. The new person needs to address the deep rooted problem of the defects in Arena's demand channel. Laugh it off. It's the spell above you / our head. You still make your millions. We're the bag holders, waiting for something to happen which just doesn't. You burn through millions but it means ZERO to us because your DEMAND CHANNEL IS DEFECTIVE but you don't get it -- so it won't be fixed till you get it. If you get it, then do something about it -- bring in a heavy weight to fix this misery.

Kind Regards
Reza

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

ARNA new analyst coverage / new acquisition guru board member

Berenberg Bank initiated coverage on Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARNA) with a Buy.

Arena Pharmaceuticals initiated with a Buy at Berenberg Berenberg analyst Patrick Trucchio initiated Arena Pharmaceuticals with a Buy rating and $55 price target, citing his view that ralinepag still has upside potential and that etrasimod may "emerge a winner in the crowded IBD area." He also believes that olorinab, which is in Phase 2 development for visceral pain associated with IBD and IBS, may eventually be worth as much, or more, than ralinepag, Trucchio tells investors.

There are 9 Buy Ratings, no Sell Ratings, no Hold Ratings on the stock.

The current consensus rating on Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARNA) is Buy with a consensus target price of $64.1250 per share, a potential 50.28% upside.

~~~~~~~~~~

ARNA brings in heavy-weight board member. Third new board member in a row with a solid track record of facilitating big acquisitions. Strengthens my belief that ARNA is moving towards being acquired. I give it six months, with a price guess of $150+/share.

- Mr. Soni is CFO of Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. He is currently board member and audit committee chair at Pulse Biosciences. He is former CFO of ARIAD Pharmaceuticals, Inc., headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts. He played a vital role in the acquisition of ARIAD by Takeda for over $5.2 billion.

- Mr. Soni played a vital role in Pharmacyclics' acquisition by Abbvie for $21 billion.

~~~~~~~~~~

Other news:

- Eisai has entered into an agreement to grant exclusive development and marketing rights for lorcaserin in Brazil to Eurofarma Laboratorios. Under this agreement, Eisai will supply Eurofarma with lorcaserin. Eisai will receive a one-time contractual payment and is eligible for milestone payments for sales in Brazil.

- In October 2018, Eisai signed an agreement to grant exclusive development and marketing rights for lorcaserin in 17 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, excluding Brazil...."


---

This not an investment advice. To be removed reply with "remove".

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Arena executives in Zurich today with Leerink

All:

We have confirmation that Arena is in Zurich today with Leerink.

What it's for, we don't know. There are a few possibilities. The most reasonable speculation is that perhaps Leerink is brokering a meeting with a big pharma. One of our medical doctor investors speculates it could be Novartis, but there are other possibilities, including those pharmas which were outbid by Celgene when it acquired Receptos for $7.2B.

Three years later we know etrasimod is far superior than ozanimod, Arena has over a $billion in the bank, a nice licensing deal on ralinepag, and other gems in its pipeline including etrasimod, and the whole enchilada is valued at around $2B which I mostly blame the last management for the damage they did to Arena's image and investor sentiments (and therefore demand), and Amit's apparent inability to turn that around despite the good work he's done in some other areas. Arena's IR still seems inept at generating the kind of demand the stock deserves, and Amit's not done enough to revamp that corner of the company. Amit has failed to translate progress, and incredibly good data, and now cash, into meaningful increase in stock price / company value.

That's of course good news for the prospective acquirers, but bad for us shareholders.

Let's hope Arena is in buyout talks with a few different pharmas, and just as "fly on the wall" found out yesterday, there's leakage and speculation. Perhaps that will help ARNA get fairly valued, since Arena's own management doesn't seem to be capable of driving shareholder value. So let's hope Arena's finally sold for at a nice multiple to current ridiculously low price, soon!!

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This not an investment advice. To be removed reply with "remove".

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ARNA new info that's not press released

Hot off the press, recently revealed at the Evercore conference: Arena (ARNA) has received green light from the FDA on an abbreviated registrational design (treat through) for Etrasimod in GI (i.e. should lead to accelerated approval). This could explain why they're already building the commercial infrastructure including hiring top sales and medical affairs executives:

  • Robert Lisicki was a sales and marketing leader for Johnson and Johnson (10 years), vice-president of sales for Amgen (10 years) and more recently vice-president of cardiometabolic and inflammation for Regeneron.
  • Paul Audhya has a long career in development and global medical affairs with companies including Pfizer, Abbott, Amgen, Johnson and Johnson and Bristol-Myers Squibb.

ETRASIMOD (Arena) vs. Ozanimod (Celgene)

  • 28 Nov 2018, CEO Amit Munshi: "I think it's a just a really big difference between the compound (etrasimod) and is driven predominantly by one was developed in house on the back of 400 scientists, 80 medicinal chemist and one (ozanimod) that was licensed from an academic lab with incomplete medicinal chemistry."
  • Etrasimod is the only next generation S1P1 modulator.  Discussed superiority in pharmacology and safety vs. Ozanimod and Gilenya

Evercore analyst, Dr. Josh Schimmer (MD, Harvard MBA) sounded shocked at the low valuation (Arena being so undervalued). He had a fabulous exchange with Amit Munshi this week. The transcript can be found on www.arna-info.com

~~~~~

This is not an investment advice.

To be removed please reply with "remove".

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

ARNA may be closer to a big sale than we think

A few facts and opinions on ARNA:

The $800m cash injection hasn't happened yet. It will, once the deal is closed. When? Only reference I've seen mentions December. But I'm not sure. It shouldn't take long. When that's done the stock should reflect that certainty of ARNA having another $800m in the bank for a total of around $1.3b. Not bad!

Arena just hired some top executives -- including a heavyweight in sales and marketing.

Arena is expanding into Boston which is a major bio-pharma including many small biotechs and many big pharmas.

Arena is going full force in building a solid company that can do its own commercialization of its crown jewel drugs that it still holds 100% rights to.

Meanwhile, and this is key -- we have a new entity in the picture: a merger/acquisition top investment bank. We don't know about the relationship other than the fact that Arena is presenting there on Wednesday Nov 28 at 16:15 EST (live webcast link is on Arena's website).

I guess this is not just a one off presentation. There are one to ones, and possibly Arena has retailed Evercore, or one or more of Evercore's large clients put Arena on the radar as acquisition target.

Making Healthcare buyouts happen is a core sector of Evercore's business. Buyouts take time, as parties involved do a lot of due diligence, but having Evercore in the picture gives me a fuzzy feeling that the process may have been kicked off.

Of course the fun question is always, what's a fair value? If the deal was announced today, I guess it would be for $120 per share. My gut feeling is it will take some more months, and competitive bidding could make the deal happen at closer to what many of us feel is fair value, i.e., around $250 per share.  Regardless, with closing of the UTHR deal, the stock should get a nice boost.

As always, do your own research.
Regards
Reza

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

ARNA conferences

Arena presenting:

Evercore ISI HealthCONx Conference – Presenting on Wednesday, November 28, at 4:15PM EST in Boston. A live audio webcast of the presentation will be available on www.arenapharm.com

Citi Global Healthcare Conference – Hosting investor meetings on Wednesday, December 5 and Thursday, December 6, in New York City

I think last time Arena was at CITI they just did private meetings. I assume it's the same this time.

PS -- Please click LIKE if you like to 🙂 . it helps FB circulate an important message. thanks https://www.facebook.com/rganjavi/posts/2265694093650003

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From one of our friends. He has 35,500 shares of ARNA. I call it "large" retail investor because he has $1.5 million invested in Arena. I know others at that level or higher too.

"... The United deal will hopefully - finally - push us in the right direction. The cash position is now very robust and, as others have commented, the science has presumably been vindicated. I have been buying ARNA stock for 6.5 years and may eventually be vindicated also! If they are waiting until I sell before a buyout or significant price appreciation occurs, then they are sadly mistaken. I will not be shaken out, despite the recent wild gyrations. I feel we are getting closer to a fair valuation, but it could still take a year or two. I have learned not to be optimistic, but eventually, with considerable patience, I think we will get a pay day. I would not dare to try to trade the stock or sell calls at this point. In the meantime, I have a GTC sell order in place for 250/share to try to prevent short selling against my holdings..."

My answer:

Dear D.

The GTC sell orders at high prices (or any price) don't prevent short selling if your share are in a margin account. The safest way to prevent shorting is to put the shares in a cash account. Since you're not trading or selling calls, that can be feasible (moving them to a cash account). Another good option is to send them to Arena's transfer agent (computershare.com). This can be easily done by requesting the broker to do it. The transfer agent will safekeep the shares and shorts can't get their hands on it. When you want to sell them, the shares can be sent back to a broker, or sold directly by computershare.

---
By the way, the "mountain bear" phrase in the subject line of my last email was a typing error - should not have been there.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

ARNA institutional interest & resemblance to a mountain bear

ARNA quarterly institutional interest is out (81.91%).

Increased Positions  79  5,551,453
Decreased Positions  87  5,844,563
New Positions  27 1,691,186
Sold Out Positions 27 2,012,689

Help me understand:  More shares were sold than bought. How could that result in increase of inst% ?

TOP 10 ACTIVITY:

INCREASED

WELLINGTON 4,811,363  41,770
BLACKROCK 4,756,012 63,040
VANGUARD 4,669,780  130,019
PARTNER FUND 2,729,555     1,532,664
STATE STREET 2,389,710 32,181
PERCEPTIVE 1,366,978  525,000

DECREASED

FMR 2,953,079 (1,607,595)
POINT72 956,900 (410,500)
ALYESKA 1,090,871 (120,929)

NEW

PRIMECAP 988,399 988,399

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An email from Dr. Joe:

Arena Pharmaceuticals analyst commentary at RBC Capital Arena Pharmaceuticals price target raised to $70 from $65 at RBC Capital.

RBC Capital analyst Kennen MacKay raised his price target on Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) to $70 and kept his Outperform rating after its $1.2B licensing deal with United Therapeutics (UTHR) for worldwide rights to Arena's pulmonary arterial hypertension drug candidate ralinepag .

The analyst notes that the cash flow will reduce the company's R&D and commercial development spending, enabling the company to "focus on unlocking the value of crown jewel etrasimod without concern surrounding cash runway" while also demonstrating the value of its pipeline/medicinal chemistry.

Arena Pharmaceuticals analyst commentary at RBC Capital Arena Pharmaceuticals price target raised to $70 from $65 at RBC Capital. RBC Capital analyst Kennen MacKay raised his price target on Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) to $70 and kept his Outperform rating after its $1.2B licensing deal with United Therapeutics (UTHR) for worldwide rights to Arena's pulmonary arterial hypertension drug candidate ralinepag . The analyst notes that the cash flow will reduce the company's R&D and commercial development spending, enabling the company to "focus on unlocking the value of crown jewel etrasimod without concern surrounding cash runway" while also demonstrating the value of its pipeline/medicinal chemistry.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

ARNA entered into a partnership for Ralinepag (its second best drug) with a PAH specialist company. You can read the details on the press release and related articles. I don't have much to add (thanks to those who asked). The stock reacted positively (went from $32 to $42 in 2 days). Analysts are upbeat on the deal. Idea is Arena will use the cash to develop their best drug (Etrasimod) which has a bigger potential market than Ralinepag. Orolinab is getting very little valuation but it can prove to be huge.

As a result of this deal Arena will have $1.4B in the bank (not bad) + milestones and royalties and other drugs it has full rights to. Also Arena's R&D expenses drop as the partner will pay for Phase 3. Arena should earn around $6M/quarter of just revenue fro its fat and juicy cash position.

The stock should go to $50 by the time this deal closes (to reflect the $800M up front payment).

I saw for the first time JP Morgan get excited about something Arena.

I believe the stock is grossly undervalued. It should be 80 today. But hopefully it'll get there sooner than later.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Hi All

I realized today arna-info.com was hijacked. Funny !!  I changed the
redirect and it's working again.  http://www.arna-info.com/

If you have any updates to it please send it to me.

ARNA had their quarterly conference call this week. Nothing new. Various
analysts maintained their price targets.

I have received new information that strengthens my belief that if your
shares are in a margin account they can and will be used against you to
lend to shorts. Safest to have the shares in a cash account or save them
at Arena's official transfer agent: www.Computershare.com - you can call
and make an account and then have the stock moved there. They safekeep
it for free. This takes your stock out of circulation. If you want to
sell it you can move it to your broker any time, or sell it directly at
Computershare.

Regards
Reza

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Latest Credit Suisse research report on ARNA

Very thorough report on ARNA.
Also, Credit Suisse lists Arena as one of the takeover candidates for Merck.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Dr. Joe:
"Reza,
I believe that these are solid estimates.  Trials are different study to study and I haven’t looked carefully at the other trials yet.  Keep in mind that the PAH trials are designed to increase market share so any extension in trial length has big benefits for market share.  There will be no screw ups in these trials.  I believe we are in good hands.  It will be a wait but worth it in the long run IMHO.  I cut back my holdings by about 25% over the past 2 days in anticipation buying later at a lower price.  Lots of good information today.  Getting acquired remains a possibility but the team must carry on.  I have no complaints about what was presented today.  The price drop is standard activity after news.  People are worried about a quick pay off but big money is increasing their stake...up to 85% as of today according to Amit."


~~~~~~~~~

Reza's idea: the stock drop following the presentation is just another step for market makers to separate boys from me and girls from women.

Train stopped -- some offloaded. Strong hands will go to the next level. Arena has some work on its hands and we're breathing down their necks but I remain extremely optimistic. Many bios have gotten acquired at the stage of development where Arena is just entering (start of phase 3), including two of our competitors for a combined value of 15B for drugs that we now know are inferior to ours. Our entire current value is 2B. Here's a good new article on the topic. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4210128-arena-pharmaceuticals-market-capitalization-justified

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Folks

Deck from the R&D day is attached

The audio is available here: http://lifesci.rampard.com/20181004/player.html

Highly recommended listening.

I will send a more detailed review later but for now, I think Dr. Klassen and the guest doctors were excellent. I heard from Kevin this morning. The Arena group who were there were not just there for the conference. So I assume there were other meetings going on (guessing it to be around partnership or buyout). Arena's science is top notch and I still think it's deeply under-valued.

Regards
Reza

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Amit, Kevin, Preston:

Listening to you guys today (overall nice job) it stood out for me VERY CLEARLY you're going to walk on some mine fields.

You're taking a very risky path forward. Including the heads on studies which are very dangerous. Think of:

1) the guerillas you're going against
2) their guerilla investors
3) Arena being well known to be SUPER EASY to kick around -- had a bozo for a CEO for years -- and chickens who are still there

They took beating one after another in easy cases for a CEO/legal team with guts to turn around as a win for company instead of surrendering and getting shareholders alaughtered as a result. 

You guys confirmed all that by your delightful capital raise around etrasimod data. You told Wall Street "we're as easy target as ever -- sweet smiling soft punching bag for you to kick around" and they did and LOVE you for it.

Having watched this company for a LONG time -- and seeing what can be done with it -- and knowing you good boys -- bright and well-intentioned, but apologies for being blunt, they're going to fuck you up -- just because they can.

Trust me, I know what I'm talking about --- FAR BETTER than Spector who was part of one of the dumbest management team ever when it came to understanding the politics of influencing. Think Consumer Report, think DEA, etc. etc. all the horrors that happened on that lousy team's watch and they stood there watching it helplessly like a bunch of morons -- and not even able to shoot straight in some basic things like the Press Releases they fucked up and had to do re-release and so on.

Of course they will deny all this and point the blame to the outer world -- and you believe it because you've been sucked into that dysfunctional culture with the illusion that you've RESET it (good joke)! Just look at the valuation if you don't believe me. That's ALL one needs to look at.

You guys are good people but you're incapable of breaking this curse because you've been sucked into it -- it RESET you instead of the other way around. MONEY TALKS. Valuation is the proof of what I'm saying and have been saying since the day you walked into the office but your ears were plugged by that curse -- if you get my point.

Way out: sell the company. Prep it for sale. Get the word out in a subtle way. You got 2 pros on the board for this topic. Your enemy is the same attitude that sank Jack Lief -- you're following the footsteps of the founders' syndrome. 

We told this (sell) to Jack Lief and his babe laughed at us. Look at what "they" did to him (us). "they" are the ones who have their act together -- have BIG money -- know all about the art of influencing (which Arena is absolutely clueless about -- look at Etrasimod funding).

YOU CAN'T GO AGAINST CELGENE AND J&J. NO CHANCE. They'll kill us. YOU need to partner or better yet sell the company. I don't want to tell you in 2 years when we have the same valuation as today. They'll buyout your test site. When the president of the country is corrupt what do you expect?  FCC is corrupt. You think Celgene & JJ can't influence the FDA? WAKE UP.

This was Jack/Steven/Craig's single biggest mistake (among their many big mistakes): They underestimated the politics of influence. 

You're carefully following in their footsteps and I'm afraid where you're going is NOT GOING TO WORK FOR SHAREHOLDERS.

Please consider all this.

Regards

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Make sure your shares of ARNA is held in a CASH account -- or in type CASH (a.k.a. Type 1) within a margin account -- or at the very least, put a GTC order on the shares at a very high price. I've got mine ready to sell at $250 in multiple GTC orders. In some brokers this acts to lock up the shares for lending. But being in Cash type is the surest way. Or get a certificate

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A long-term shareholder of Arena wrote and sent this to some Arena board members. Kevin, please forward to Amit. Thank you.


"Once again Arena presents what should be very positive clinical data and the stock price is actually down in an up market.  Why: 1) the market is so accustomed to Arena execs and the BOD diluting the shareholders every time positive news is released 2) the recent statement from the CEO about his time frame for a return not being aligned with the shareholders.  In my 30 years of investing I’ve never heard such an arrogant, ignorant and shareholder-unfriendly statement.

The long term shareholders have been diluted numerous times over the past 10 years, probably 300-400%.  It’s time to get focused on maximizing the stock price for the benefit of the shareholders and not trying to build Arena into the next large pharma.  Arena does not have the capital or expertise to develop these assets internally, so do the right thing and maximize the return on these assets for the shareholders NOW!

The cards have been turned over, it’s time to HIRE AND INVESTMENT BANKING FIRM firm to seek bids for the assets since it’s unlikely E and R and 371/O will get the max bid from any 1 bio-pharma.  Please do the right thing for the shareholders who own the company!"

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

To Amit, Kevin, Preston

Nice job gang... market basically said your amazing data is worth ZERO
because you guys are completely ignorant of underlying currents which
are hurting this stock, and have refused to pay attention, and have
fallen for the rotten status quo you inherited. You think you've reset
it. We told you from day 1 it's too thick. It's too tricky. But you came
in as good old boys thinking this is a good old company. We showed you
the curse. You were too weak, too afraid, too proud of your experience
to pay attention to us. Now it comes back to bite you / us.

Unless you like it this way Amit -- maybe your goals and investor goals
are truly in a mismatch. Maybe your goals match those of shorts. I don't
think so and hope not. I like to believe it's IGNORANCE, AVIDYA!

Amit, when are you going to wake up and face the reality that something
is wrong with your approach. It's been wrong for two years. We pointed
this exact problem out 2 years ago. You still didn't go far enough with
the reset. You let lousy culture around IR continue. You didn't have the
energy to uproot the rotten ways of the past and their spell on Arena
culture. You are no better than Jack Lief in this regard and followed
his footsteps -- knowingly, or were fooled into it -- to not shake up
the status quo.

Four top notch drugs going for 2 Billion. If you don't see the problem
Amit, please find another job because your stock will go nowhere under
your leadership without that realization and waking up to facts. That
awareness is action. Once you're willing to acknowledge the problem, and
not ignore it, deny it, rationalize it due to persuasion by the
beneficiaries of the status quo, or discard the message we've been
telling you for over 2 years -- then correct action will reveal itself.

Then maybe you will do a round of firing of people who are the problem,
and get new people who can truly reset Arena's failed, lame,
dysfunctional, paralyzed, useless approach towards BUILDING SHAREHOLDER
VALUE as measured in dollars. You don't need an army of people. Just a
few top notch people and draining the swamp.

I hate to be sitting here 2.5 years later telling you I TOLD YOU SO.  I
don't want to tell you this again in the future. Wake up Amit. If you
don't, you'll keep doing the same things expecting different results
which will NOT happen because the problem is LEADERSHIP.

Good luck and best regards

Reza Ganjavi and other investors I know are frustrated as hell about
your performance and inability to get Arena fairly valued. You have an
MBA if I remember correctly? You must understand what supply/demand
means and what influences demand. We are disgusted with your poor
performance in this area.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Kevin: please forward to Amit Munshi. Thanks.

More experts looking at the new data are calling it fabulous.

With the latest trial results, properties of Arena's three fully owned products are known -- the cards are turned over, as Amit Munshi put it, as a prerequisite for partnership and/or buyout. So I expect such talks to commence (despite Amit's recent comment; everything is for sale at the right offer).

R&D day next week will be significant.

I expect analyst upgrades / raising of price target due to the new data, and what will be revealed at the R&D day about the pipeline including new biologic agents.

            Where I believe Arena (Amit) is failing investors

ARNA should be able to get up to $80 just on back of what's known now and coming next week if it had a half decent IR/publicity team & CEO who understands the principles/significance of effective marketing in influencing demand, and DOES something about it.  With millions spent on G&A, I don't believe Arena ever gave this topic the attention it deserved by having a top notch internal IR champion.

Amit seems to be doing all the promotion -- his efforts could be doubly effective if they had a fearless, strong, top-notch champion in-house who could talk the talk. be "knocking on doors" every day, build and nurture relationships, and not run and hide if an investor calls.  I've seen that kind of role produce great results with other companies.

That would be 100% opposite to Jack Lief / Steven Spector regime's culture. I believe that influence is still there which has led to the disaster we have today, and the resulting disgustingly low shareholder value.

~~~~~~~~~~

Feel free to "like" / share / add me on facebook / and share on other social media / message board if you like:

https://www.facebook.com/rganjavi/posts/2235089500043796

Regards

Reza


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Dear Kevin: Please forward to Amit Munshi. Some investors & analysts are copied as well.

Etrasimod -- Great P2 results -- Best in class

Ralinepag -- Great P2 results -- Best in class

and out today:

Olorinab -- Great P2a results -- Best in class -- NOT part of analyst valuations -- it should add 500m to the models -- with multi-billion potential given opiate epidemic.

Belviq -- Best in class -- Great CVOT results -- Will be Blockbuster

FOUR BEST IN CLASS DRUGS valued at 2 BILLION. What does this say about Amit Munshi's ability to build shareholder value? We've advised him since the day he came in to pay attention to this topic but he hasn't. His "reset" didn't go far enough to succeed at breaking the "spell" caused by last management team's mismanagement.

~~~
Very good news for Arena -- Olorinab showed GREAT RESULTS -- efficacy and safety. But as usual due to ineffective investor-relations / media&public relations this press release too will probably fall on deaf ears because Arena seems incompetent in getting itself fairly valued, no matter how good the science.   The roots of this is in a long tradition of ineptness in obtaining fair value for the company going back to Jack Lief, Steven Spector & Co.'s dark years which destroyed investor confidence / company image / shareholder value / trust.   The current IR effort seems at best tiny, minimal, sub-par, and just as ineffective, probably because the challenge was never acknowledged by Amit Munshi / Steven Spector et al. team (Surprise?!)  -- same same ... same results.

If you don't understand a problem you can't solve it and you're bound by it. Motives may have changed but fact remains that Arena SUCKS in IR and the end result is us shareholders who suffer from our money not appreciating like it should. Arena should be a 5b company today, not 2b. Ok, 4b. That's  80 bucks not 43.  This same inept approach to shareholder value blew Etrasimod data.

GREAT SCIENCE, still in hands of people who don't seem to be able to turn it into enterprise value.  How does that distinguish Amit Munshi from Jack Lief?

Is it time that Arena gets a CEO who know how to build SHAREHOLDER VALUE (which naturally is measured in DOLLARS)?  I think that time is near if the stock stays stuck in this mud which the last management team got it into and Amit has not succeeded in set the Arena ship sailing. TWO BILLION DOLLAR VALUATION FOR THIS MUCH GREAT SCIENCE IS UNACCEPTABLE AMIT.

One a positive note:

Professor Yacyshyn, MD:
"There is a strong clinical need for non-opiate treatments for the management of chronic abdominal pain in patients with gastrointestinal disorders, including Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis and irritable bowel syndrome. The exciting results from this initial Phase 2a study in patients with Crohn's disease leaves me optimistic for the potential of olorinab as a novel approach for the management of GI pain."

Comments from two medical-doctor-investors:

"The drug will be used in a large majority of patients with inflammatory bowel disease and pain. Assuming that efficacy and safety data holds up through larger trials. It will be used instead of narcotics... this is potentially a Home Run for treatment of IBS."

"Overall, I'm extremely pleased with these results which are better than I was expecting. Analysts and Arena had guided for improvements in the AAPS pain score of 2 point as evidence of a real effect.  They reported -4.6 change at peak effect... I was also especially pleased to hear that their were no clinically significant changes in heart rate or blood pressure that had been seen in the phase 1 trials."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Dr. Joe wrote:

Prediction on trial results:  very positive results but small trial prevents massive price appreciation.  New larger trial for olorinab announced.

Price Results:  price briefly climbs to the mid-50's range on olorinab results and drops back down to $50 and change ($2.5 billion market cap).

Near-Term Future: New announcements at October Investor conference raises price to $53 to $54 dollar range.  We slide back to $50 and change by mid-October.

~~~

My comment:

Sounds reasonable -- I would add, given over 80% of shares are in institutional hands, assuming Arena can get more analyst coverage = more institutions -- the price should rise regardless of those below. When an institution decides to take a position -- or increase its position -- demand stream strengthens.

Also, don't forget the un-hedged shorts who have a strong incentive to cover.  Some of the current short position is by some existing institutional owners.

I wish Arena would do more to promote itself on a day to day basis -- to build and nurture relationships with new analysts and institutions, and strengthening existing ones. But our CEO goes on the air and says his idea of long term strategy doesn't match a lot of investors', super! Reminds me of Jack Lief era hiccups. I believe those weaknesses have been inherited / morphed through the culture and left over people like Spector.

If Arena cleans up that area, a solid, polished strategy on investor/public relations will significantly help the stock.  As is, I'm willing to bet Arena still has no IR strategy.

Best wishes
Reza

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They're taking the show to the center of finance, NY, for a deep dive on R&D / Arena's two flagship sexy hotshot products Etrasimod and Ralinepag.  Arena Pharmaceuticals to Host R&D Day on October 4 in New York City...

Olorinab is the wild card. Data expected before the R&D day. Very good data could take ARNA to $60+. Bad data shouldn't hurt the stock since it's not part of most valuations. Countdown...

I still hope (Kevin is copied) that Arena gets its IR together and for God's sake get some more analysts on board.  There's gotta be some sell-side analysts (means analysts who work for brokerages who sell to institutions) in that room who are not covering Arena. We have not seen any new coverage since Flintstones' era. Is Arena's IR awake?

Good luck Kevin, Amit, Preston. Go get them. Perhaps Amit will want to clarify his STRANGE statement about mismatch of HIS vision vs. investors'.  Will Spector stay in San Diego, have lunch with his pal Jack Lief and think about when to dump his next batch of stock?

Best wishes
Reza

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SAN DIEGO, Sept. 21, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq :ARNA ) today announced that the Company will host an R&D Day to outline key catalysts and new information on the clinical programs for its potentially first- or best-in-class late-stage investigational compounds: etrasimod in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), ralinepag in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), and olorinab in visceral pain. The Company will also provide updates on its broader portfolio. The event will take place in New York City on Thursday, October 4, 2018, from 8-11:00 a.m. EDT.

The meeting will feature leading international experts William J. Sandborn, MD, Professor of Medicine, Adjunct Professor of Surgery and Chief, Division of Gastroenterology and Vice Chair for Clinical Operations at the Department of Medicine at the University of California, San Diego and UC San Diego Health System; and Victor F. Tapson, MD, FCCP, FRCP, Director of the Venous Thromboembolism and Pulmonary Vascular Disease Research Program, Director of Clinical Research at the Women's Guild Lung Institute, and Associate Director of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine at Cedars – Sinai. Drs. Sandborn and Tapson will discuss the current disease landscapes and how the Arena compounds may be utilized within the treatment paradigms. Both experts will be available to answer questions during the event.

William J. Sandborn, MD
William Sandborn, MD, is a board-certified gastroenterologist who is one of the world's top experts in the management of ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease. He directs the Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) Center at UC San Diego Health. In addition, he is chief of the Division of Gastroenterology, vice chair of clinical operations for the Department of Medicine, and a member of the Clinical Practice Oversight (CPO) Board for UC San Diego Health. A professor in the Department of Medicine at UC San Diego School of Medicine, Dr. Sandborn conducts clinical trials in IBD and leads a team of physicians, research fellows, nurses, and study coordinators. With his physician collaborators, he evaluates and develops new diagnostic modalities and medical therapies for IBD. Dr. Sandborn is internationally recognized for his contributions in the fields of biotechnology therapy, clinical pharmacology, conduct of clinical trials, diagnostic and treatment of pouchitis, epidemiology and natural history, and endoscopic and radiographic imaging techniques. His clinical trials have been instrumental to developing modern treatments for IBD. Dr. Sandborn has published nearly 600 articles in prestigious journals, including the New England Journal of Medicine, The Lancet, JAMA, the Annals of Internal Medicine, and Gastroenterology. Prior to joining UC San Diego Health, Dr. Sandborn worked in the Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn. Dr. Sandborn completed his fellowship at Mayo Clinic. He did his residency and earned his medical degree at Loma Linda University School of Medicine. He is board-certified in gastroenterology.

Victor F. Tapson, MD
Victor F Tapson, MD, FCCP, FRCP, is Professor of Medicine, Director of Clinical Research for the Women's Guild Lung Institute, Director of the Venous Thromboembolism and Pulmonary Vascular Disease Research Program, and Associate Director of the Pulmonary and Critical Care Division at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, CA. He earned his medical degree from Drexel University School of Medicine in Philadelphia, PA. He completed his internship and residency in internal medicine at Duke University Medical Center, where he went on to become Chief Resident. In addition, he completed a fellowship in Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine at Boston City Hospital in affiliation with Boston University. After his fellowship, he co-founded the Duke Lung Transplant program as well as starting the Duke Pulmonary Vascular Disease Center, where he served as Director for the next 20 years. Dr Tapson has devoted his medical career to patient care, research, and teaching in pulmonary hypertension and pulmonary embolism. He has authored more than 200 peer-reviewed manuscripts and has edited numerous books and book chapters. In addition, he was involved with the development of the American Thoracic Society's clinical practice guidelines for the diagnosis of venous thromboembolism as well as the international guidelines for the selection of lung transplant candidates.

Drs. Sandborn and Tapson are consultants to Arena.

Attendance at the event is intended for institutional investors, sell-side analysts, investment bankers and business development professionals.  A live and archived webcast of the event, with slides, will be available under the investor relations section of Arena's website at www.arenapharm.com. A replay of the presentation will be available for 30 days following the event.

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ARNA: APD371 data in 10 days

I don't believe any analysts includes 371 in their valuation. Data expected in 10 days. If good data, analysts will give it value.

It's an open label trial so Arena should know by now what the data looks like.

Perhaps this was a reason behind CEO Munshi's almost arrogant stance at Morgan Stanley -- perhaps it was confidence.

Dr. Joe thinks the data will be good. I am not qualified to make an educated assessment on the chances but we'll soon know.

Potential market for a non-addictive opiate is HUMONGOUS. Senate is pushing for it too. Data so far indicate 371 is clean, like rest of ARNA compounds.

I'm not holding my breath but 2 often becomes 3... (2 hugely positive data for Ralinepag, Etrasimod since last year ..... and now... tada...)

Regards
Reza

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MORE TO BE LOADED AS TIME ALLOWS.


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